Probability

[sajuukar]

I was just thinking one day, and discovered something about the nickle that I was holding in my hand. If I flipped it, there was a fifty percent chace that it would land to be a heads, and a 50% chance it would be tails, right? Wrong! I belive that Probability actually is only something that humans use to make up for the lack of knowledge that they have about the variables that affect the oucome of any given situation. There is in fact a 100% chance that it is going to land and be whatever it is going to be, all you gotta do to figure this out is take into account all the variable, like the force with which you flick the coin, the angel of your hand, the slope of the ground, the texture of the ground, the rotation of the planet, your elevation, the air density... pretty much an innumerable number of variables that we simply don't know, and therefore use probability to fill in the gaps!

Dissagree? Agree? Have an article?

:angel:

[Mac_Bug]

The head side is slightly more dense and therefore more likely to be flipped.

In actual probability calculations, we assume a spherical cow of uniform density.

The wonders of it however, works in greater numbers. Given enough coins and you flip them around, you will find an almost perfect fit to the probability predictions.

You don't really think the last poll about who should've won the election was 100% accurate did you?

97%, 19 times out of 20.

Probability, as I said, works on a number of assumptions (like the people you polled were uh, REALLY random, and didn't all get out of the Republican convention)

With that said, cat in the box.

Now go :)

[oneredpanther]

whattup foo'.

'fraid you're wrong there, old chap.

Flipping a coin is a large system, with a whole host of microscopic variables. Sure, you could figure out all of them, but then you're left with the biggie at the smallest level - Quantum Fluctuation.

Quantum Fluctuation affects every system in the universe. Even your mom. Put simply, quantum flux deals with tiny packets of energy flipping in and out existence / swapping energy for matter and generally doing loads of crazy shit for absolutely no reason at all - that is, it's totally random.

It can also be used to expain the big bang. Have a quick look here (http://www.phys.hawaii.edu/vjs/www/inflat.txt) to see what I mean.

So, you can never know ALL the variables in a system. Even if there were some mathematics behind Quantum Fluctuations, Heisenberg's Uncertainty Principle would prevent you from accurately measuring the background quanta, and therefore boging-up any attempt to quantify things.

'aint the universe great?

[sajuukar]

The wonders of it however, works in greater numbers. Given enough coins and you flip them around, you will find an almost perfect fit to the probability predictions.
That's the thing w/ probability... almost. If it were possible to know every last variable that would affect your coin flip, it might also be possible to see how it will be affected, and therefore you can predict the outcome, but:
Quantum Fluctuation affects every system in the universe. Even your mom. Yes, there are those tiny and bothersome Quantum Fluctuations that might, although on a small scale, affect the coin. :(

By the by, there is actually a 49.99999999999...% chance that the coin will land on heads or tails... there is actually a ridiculously tiny chance that it will end up on it's side. I don't think this has ever happened though, but I'm pretty sure that it was possible with the nickle I possesed, it being the thickest of US quarters.

[oneredpanther]

btw, your sig makes absolutely no sense whatsoever, but in the process of making no sense you managed to spell transcendence wrong - and having the fundemental word in yer sig spelt incorrectly makes you look, well, a bit silly. heh.

This has been a Mini Panth-O-Nitpick

[sajuukar]

Heh... thanx :D :trix:

[Walker]

Probability is a big joke. Something either happens or it doesnt happen. When I fly in a plane, I either crash or I dont crash. When I walk over a minefield I either blow my torso to shreds or I trundle on into the sunset.

It is, like quasar sort of says, down to ignorance. If I walk off a cliff, I either get crushed to death or I land and walk away. Of course, we KNOW I'll get crushed. I'd always get crushed. So that ones a no brainer. But in a plane I dont know if I'm going to crash or not. When I walk down the high street I could walk along and have nothing happen, or a meteor that has streaked through the galaxy for a billion years and been spun in an interstellar waltz by physical forces could hurtle through the atmosphere and connect with my frontal lobe just as I smell onions frying. We don't know. Spam me with figures and statistics all you like - it may or may not happen.

"Probability" is an attempt by humans to let themselves feel safer in an unsafe world. It attempts to rationalise random events so we can feel safe knowing that maths, pure logic, shows it will never happen to us. What do you say when it does? "I never thought it would happen to me"? Exactly. Welcome to the real world.

[SvK]

Originally posted by Silver Quasar

By the by, there is actually a 49.99999999999...% chance that the coin will land on heads or tails... there is actually a ridiculously tiny chance that it will end up on it's side. I don't think this has ever happened though, but I'm pretty sure that it was possible with the nickle I possesed, it being the thickest of US quarters.

The nickel is not the thickest of US quarters. :)

[Vaarok]

Chaos is so much fun!

That's my gripe with religion. They want to take away freedom by attributing everything to preprogrammed and directed causality, rather than the infinite freedom of chaos.

[oneredpanther]

Walker, you obviously have a grudge against Probability. Maybe it ran off with your girlfriend once?
It's not something we "just made up", it's what we use to determine how likely it is that an as-yet unquanitfiable variable will triumph over another.

Probability and Randominity are not the same thing. In fact, they're pretty unrelated. And that's were you've all got confuserated. Just because something has a probability stuck on it's head DOES NOT mean that you're always accounting for randomness. Horse races for example. Bets are taken according to certain probabilities that a given horse will win. Bookies don't account for Quantum flux in the track or the aerodynamic form of the horses. It's about known statistics and previous races - that is, probability without a random component in a roughly controlled mesoscopic environment. *burp*

To paraphrase Animal Farm on the subject of probability: "Some random events are more random than others".

[Thorn]

Its funny, flipping coins, about 90% of the time I can get it to land on the side I want....

[SvK]

Originally posted by Vaarok
Chaos is so much fun!

That's my gripe with religion. They want to take away freedom by attributing everything to preprogrammed and directed causality, rather than the infinite freedom of chaos.

1) I don't think all religions believe that. and 2) Causality and chaos are the same thing! (If you leave out religion, that is)

I'm pretty sure there's some stuff about free will in most philosophies.

Leaving out divine intervention and humans being free to do whatever they want, then everything happens by predictable cause-and-effect. Of course, you can predict the effects perfectly only if you know the causes perfectly. If you're pretty close on the causes, you'll be pretty close on the effects for a while, but eventually errors will multiply. Humans can't know everything about the universe, because of all this quantum junk, and because the universe is really, really big. So without precise causes, the effects seem random. Ta-da!

[sajuukar]

Of course, you can predict the effects perfectly only if you know the causes perfectly. If you're pretty close on the causes, you'll be pretty close on the effects for a while, but eventually errors will multiply. Humans can't know everything about the universe, because of all this quantum junk, and because the universe is really, really big. So without precise causes, the effects seem random. Ta-da!
Yay, that's what I'm trying to say! Although humans can't know everything about the universe, those things are there none the less, and therefore affect every following event, eventually affecting the outcome of whatever it is that is happening. It wasn't chance that caused a heads... it was the fact that there was a small amount of wind, I flicked it decently hard, and there were probably some radio waves or something wiggling their way through it.

Just another example for fun :D :
It is not chance whether Homeworld 2 is coming out or not, because before, the idea was forumulated enough, Relic got the plan all layed out, Sierra accepted it due to some chemical process in the mind, and it is going to come out unless the world ends because of an asteroid that is going to hit Earth because it's trajectory was altered, or George Bush choked on another pretzel and accidentally pressed the nuclear bombardment buttons.

The point is, none of the mentioned above was chance... it happened or will happen.

Then this brings the idea of fate. If everything that is going to happen can't be changed, then it's fate, right? Well, I don't want to say that I belive in fate, but something similar. I dunno, that part's a bit tougher.

[oneredpanther]

Fate is a paradox of sorts, thus rendering contemplation of it's existence pointless.

Here's the skinny:

1) If fate does not exist, then you have free will and can do anything you want, safe in the knowledge that you are in charge.
2) If fate does exist, then anything you choose to do is predetermined. Should you decide to change what you do, in an attempt to change fate, then whatever you decide to change was predetermined in the first place anyway.

So in the end:

If fate does not exist you can do what you want and have free will.
If fate does exist, you can still do want you want, because "what you want" is fate. hah.

Difference: None.

So you see, it doesn't matter if all actions are predetermined because the outcome is always the same anyway.... thus rendering any disussion on the effect of fate on our lives null and void.

[Thorn]

Originally posted by OneRedPanther
Fate is a paradox of sorts, thus rendering contemplation of it's existence pointless.

Here's the skinny:

1) If fate does not exist, then you have free will and can do anything you want, safe in the knowledge that you are in charge.
2) If fate does exist, then anything you choose to do is predetermined. Should you decide to change what you do, in an attempt to change fate, then whatever you decide to change was predetermined in the first place anyway.

So in the end:

If fate does not exist you can do what you want and have free will.
If fate does exist, you can still do want you want, because "what you want" is fate. hah.

Difference: None.

So you see, it doesn't matter if all actions are predetermined because the outcome is always the same anyway.... thus rendering any disussion on the effect of fate on our lives null and void.

FINALLY! Someone who understands this concept!
I keep trying to explain this to my friends, but they dont seem to understand...

[Walker]

I knew a girl who spent 5 months sitting on her arse all day because she said fate would bring her whatever she was destined to have. Then she got bored of waiting and went to get it instead.

[sub]

Silver Quasar....

Probability was not invented because they have no way of explaining the outcome, it is a way of saying that the odds are either for or against you.

For example, if i have 50 coins, all quarters except for one dime, what is the chance of you getting the dime? 1 out of 50..right? (uggh..this brings back old memories of high school..)
Well, what they mean is that there is only ONE chance out of 49 that you will get the dime. This, of course does not mean that they disregard the possibility of other variables... Basically, it means that if there are no other variables, then those are your chances.

Another example...lets say that you have to choose one of two doors. One has a tiger in it, one has a beautiful lady that you get to marry. The chances that you will choose the one with the tiger or the lady are 50/50. But if you had 1,000,000,000,000 doors with beautiful women in all of them, but one door with a tiger in it, the odds are for you..get it?

So in conclusion, young math apprentices, by saying that probability is stupid, you are saying that you will completely rule out the 50/50 option from WHO WANTS TO BE A MILLIONAIRE? because you are afraid that an accident caused the removal of a valid answer...

SIGH...MY HEAD HURTS.

[blackjack]

Well it's all well and good to try to figure out all the infinitely small variables to get an "actual" measure of probability, but since I'm bad with math I'll just say that flipping a coin has a 50% probability of landing on heads and a 50% probablility it'll land on tails and call it a day. Because, frankly, such a measure of mine is based on factual measurements, not just silly hypotheses about angles and sine waves and quantums and all that.

[csrnumero1]

:dunce:How many people have called you crazy? Never mind that, but why would you need to know all of that stuff to figure out if a coin is going to be heads or tails? I bet if you were a math matician that you could figure that stuff out, but my point is that you don't need to. Do you want to go to school and have them teach you an equation to figure out what side the coin is going to land on!?!Thats why they only teach us a small amout of math instead of forcing us to learn another, yet useless, although more useful then other equation, eqation? I would say that there is no real equation to figure that out, mabey you could figure it out. Am I right or not?:dunce:

[bluevorlon]

for the last time.

STOP POSTING IN ORANGE

[Manta]

Fate and free will are two sides of the same coin...

[sajuukar]

Oy... that broke my noodle all right! Though, right before it did, I think I was able to decipher some of it... I think it's saying that it's up to chance whether the outcome of any event is up to chance or free will...??? Ug, told you it broke my noodle!

Probability was not invented because they have no way of explaining the outcome, it is a way of saying that the odds are either for or against you.
It is indeed true that Probability was invented to say the odds are with or againsed you, but there really is not way to explain the outcome unless you know every last force that will affect this outcome except for the ones that may be to small to affect it. The 50/50 thingy on Who wants to be a millionare is actually not Probability based... the thing is that no matter what the contestant answers, there is only one correct answer, and the contestent will only give one answer as well, so 50/50 just gives the contestant less of an opertunity to mess up. You could say less of a chance to mess up, but like mentioned above, he/she is only going to give one answer... he/she is either going to be right, or wrong, depending on what the chemicals and neuron connections in his brain are telling him/her.

[The Professor]

Originally posted by Vaarok
Chaos is so much fun!

That's my gripe with religion. They want to take away freedom by attributing everything to preprogrammed and directed causality, rather than the infinite freedom of chaos.

Not all religions are like that... Like Discordianism (www.fnord.org), which belives in Chaos.


And a better question than is it possible for a coin to land on it's side... is it possible for a die of any number of sides to land on a corner?

Fnord.

¤¤¤¤¤¤¤

[sub]

It is indeed true that Probability was invented to say the odds are with or againsed you, but there really is not way to explain the outcome unless you know every last force that will affect this outcome except for the ones that may be to small to affect it.

Ok...lemme put it this way: Probability is a way of expressing the odds of a certain outcome GIVEN the circumstances and the environment is controlled.

Got it?

FARTER

[TheBob]

Going back to the original post:


Originally posted by Silver Quasar
I was just thinking one day, and discovered something about the nickle that I was holding in my hand. If I flipped it, there was a fifty percent chace that it would land to be a heads, and a 50% chance it would be tails, right? Wrong! I belive that Probability actually is only something that humans use to make up for the lack of knowledge that they have about the variables that affect the oucome of any given situation. There is in fact a 100% chance that it is going to land and be whatever it is going to be, all you gotta do to figure this out is take into account all the variable, like the force with which you flick the coin, the angel of your hand, the slope of the ground, the texture of the ground, the rotation of the planet, your elevation, the air density... pretty much an innumerable number of variables that we simply don't know, and therefore use probability to fill in the gaps!

Dissagree? Agree? Have an article?

:angel:

You can never know all the variables and thier exact values in a system becuase of quantum fluctuations and intrumental innacuracy.

Beh.

[sajuukar]

Precisely, which is why people decided to use probability instead. So yeah, it is impossible to gather every last ounce of data, but it is there, and if we were able to get it all, we would be able to tell what was going to happen.

[Dark_illusion]

as the saying goes

"Faith is not belief without proof; but trust without reservation"

[Gen.Riken]

this has got to be the most insane conversation I have seen on this board yet. oh well, time to join the madness

You are right, there is not such thing as probility, becasue I know everything. Therefore Your fate is whatever I say it is. You will all be trampled over by a cow tomorrow, I have spoken, and now randomess with deal you a bovinely crushing blow.

Boy its amazing you can do whe you ignore something for what it is -- when sophistry dictates to reality.

What is probablity? its a statement that means, "I don't know", for whatever reasons it may be, "I don't know". Then you say something like, But I do know what could possibly happen, this or that, or that. and then someone decided to put it together in mathmatically to forumula to quanitfy uncertainty. Whether probablity exsits or not, here is the bigger question, if you understand what probability means, doesn't that mean it exists?

You figure that one out, and you have bested Ontological argument that has perplexed scholars for a thousand years.
I gues the closest anaology is, what is "is", and did Clinton have sexual relationship with that woman if she did all the work?

Fate is inevitible, whether you know it or not

[TheBob]

Yes this discussion is nutz. :trix:

Silver Quasar, It is impossible, IMPOSSIBLE, even for God, to messure something's exact value. Your messuring instrument will always be affected by something else, even if it's 1000 light years away.

[RBA-Wintrow]

"nuff said. :angel:

[TheBob]

If God can do anything, he shure hasn't saved me from the *Jaws Theme* BSOD.

[Manta]

Probability is never really 50/50 simply because if we take quantum theory and the idea that we exist as one instance of an infinite number of parrallel universes, we are simply saying that in this reality one one instance is occurring where the coin lands on heads and in another it lands on tails and in another...well..it goes on.

My point is (without baking your noodle too much) is that it is pointless to discuss the difference between destiny and free will and therefore probability in terms of one or the other. You have to break free from thinking in terms of left and right, black/white.
Rather than asking the question is the glass half empty or half full, i would rather ask...why have a glass at all? Such is the illusory nature of reality.....phew.

:argh:

[sajuukar]

Wow... so you are saying that why have probability or free will at all?

Hmm, that got me thinking... you know how the quantum theory has to do with uncertinty and if you don't know what happens in the box with the cat, he is both dead and alive? Well, this could mean that since we are not sure, probability both exists, and doesn't exist... but this can only apply to what we don't know, so sorry, that test you have in one week, since you are sure about when it is, is indeed going to happen :(

Is this what you mean by it being illusionary, or was that born of my own mind?

[TheBob]

I think the parralell universe theory was abandoned a while ago and the quantum probability wave-function theory is in style now.

[Liberator]

Originally posted by OneRedPanther
Fate is a paradox of sorts, thus rendering contemplation of it's existence pointless.

Here's the skinny:

1) If fate does not exist, then you have free will and can do anything you want, safe in the knowledge that you are in charge.
2) If fate does exist, then anything you choose to do is predetermined. Should you decide to change what you do, in an attempt to change fate, then whatever you decide to change was predetermined in the first place anyway.

So in the end:

If fate does not exist you can do what you want and have free will.
If fate does exist, you can still do want you want, because "what you want" is fate. hah.

Difference: None.

So you see, it doesn't matter if all actions are predetermined because the outcome is always the same anyway.... thus rendering any disussion on the effect of fate on our lives null and void.


ROFLOL...'choke'...'cho.................'

[Manta]

Silver you wrote:

Well, this could mean that since we are not sure, probability both exists, and doesn't exist... but this can only apply to what we don't know, so sorry, that test you have in one week, since you are sure about when it is, is indeed going to happen

Im not quite sure what you meant...lol. Doesnt matter anyway. All Im saying is that as far as I can figure, all possibilities exist/dont exist at the one time only that we cannot fathom them because of the constraints of living as a human in this/these dimensions. I have a favorite quote which goes like " put a man in a cage large enough and he thinks he's free." The way i would apply it to our discussion is that the boundaries of what we understand as existing/not existing cannot be aptly described by our limited language/physical modality. We think we know what probability is but the truth to me is that we dont know how big the cage/glass is....thus limiting ourselves to simple binary discussions of yes/no ..black/white will only run us around in circles...but it's really fun when you do too many of them and you start to get REAALLLY dizzyy and then......

[reki]

not sure if anyone will appreciate this as much as myself, but here's an extract from my favourite speech from one of my favourite plays, Stoppard's "Rosencrantz & Guildenstern are Dead" -

Guildenstern has just been tossing a coin in the air, which has come down heads 90 times in a row - He is trying to provide an explanation to Rosencrantz for this phenomenon (Rosencrantz is a bit slow, and hasn't really grasped that its anything particularly unusual.. he just thinks he has been lucky):


GUIL: List of possible explanations. One: I’m willing it. Inside where nothing shows, I am the essence of a man spinning double-headed coins, and betting against himself in private atonement for an unremembered past. (He spins a coin at Ros.)

ROS: Heads.

GUIL: Two: time has stopped dead, and the single experience of one coin being spun once has been repeated ninety times...(He flips a coin, looks at it, tosses it to Ros.) On the whole, doubtful. Three: divine intervention, that is to say, a good turn from above concerning him, cf. children of Israel, or retribution from above concerning me, cf. Lot’s wife. Four: a spectacular vindication of the principle that each individual coin spun individually (he spins one) is as likely to come down heads as tails and therefore should cause no surprise each individual time it does. (It does. He tosses it to Ros.)

ROS: I’ve never known anything like it!

GUIL: And a syllogism: One, he has never known anything like it. Two, he has never known anything to write home about. Three, it is nothing to write home about...

GUIL: ...Syllogism the second: One, probability is a factor which operates within natural forces. Two, probability is not operating as a factor. Three, we are now within un-, sub-, or supernatural forces. Discuss. Not too heatedly.

GUIL: The scientific approach to the examination of phenomena is a defense against the pure emotion of fear. Keep tight hold and continue while there's time. Now--counter to the previous syllogism: tricky one, follow me carefully, it may prove a comfort. If we postulate, and we just have, that within un-, sub-, or supernatural forces the probability is that the law of probability will not operate as a factor, then we must accept that the probability of the first part will not operate as a factor, in which case the law of probability will operate as a factor within un-, sub- or supernatural forces after all; in all probability, that is. Which is a great relief to me personally. Which is all very well, except that----We have been spinning together since I don’t know when, and in all that time (if it is all that time) I don’t suppose either of us was more than a couple of gold pieces up or down. I hope that doesn’t sound surprising because its very unsurprisingness is something I am trying to keep hold of.

The equanimity of your average tosser of coins depends upon a law, or rather a tendency, or let us say a probability, or at any rate a mathematically calculable chance, which ensures that he will not upset himself by losing too much nor upset his opponent by winning too often. This made for a kind of harmony and a kind of confidence. It related the fortuitous and the ordained into a reassuring union which we recognized as nature. The sun came up about as often as it went down, in the long run, and a coin showed heads about as often as it showed tails. Then a messenger arrived. We had been sent for. Nothing else happened. Ninety-two coins spun consecutively have come down heads ninety-two consecutive times...and for the last three minutes on the wind of a windless day I have heard the sound of drums and flute..."

ive laughed so hard every time ive seen this performed - its such a convoluted explanation, but in the end makes perfect sense.

[Uzod I]

I don't think I understood half of what was said....

[Manta]

Guys I think you are both right. Reki that little excerpt was pretty full on but it really gets to a number of points of which you wrote:


The scientific approach to the examination of phenomena is a defense against the pure emotion of fear.

Mmmm...yes. The fear of death. Of our own mortality. And that is where our cage at least personally for each of us ends (as far as we can scientifically LOL understand). But it doesnt really, we just transform to another state, another potentiality, which is probability really.:insane:

Pheewww....getting a headache...