Benazir Bhutto assassinated

[Retroboy]

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servl...rnational/home

For those not familiar with her, she's the official opposition leader of the Pakistan political process. She returned from self-imposed exile recently to her country and, in a previous public appearance, escaped another suicide bombing attempt that killed 150 citizens. Now, they got her, although as of this post, nobody has officially claimed responsibility. The politics there (everywhere?) is a huge rat's nest.

Discuss: the effectiveness of suicide bombing as a political force of change in Pakistan and elsewhere. (...I certainly wouldn't run.)

Also discuss: crazy people with bombs.

-- Retro

[Lomax]

I thought the exile was primarily because of corruption claims against her and her husband.

[eddyeddyd]

the middle east is like 2 3yr old kids who wont get along and everyone else has to fix their problems.

I'd say suicide bombing have a bad effect because they scare people and although they can frighten people into not doing something they usually get peope angry and that whole defiant human thing comes out (like when iraqis went to vote in the midst f terrorist threats)

[Zir]

I didn't know about this. Well that's a sad blow to all that is good.

[SACSlym]

It's sad to hear, although this was bound to happen as her approach to security was far to lenient. I can understand wanting to appear unshaken by the fear that can entangle a country, but with an enemy so determined it was going to happen eventually unless she took measures to protect herself.

[dan.uk]

Damn, it was a brave move she made to return to run against a military dictator (taking off a uniform doesn't stop him being one) - one who had persistently made it very difficult for any elections to be held over the last few months in particular, now that it has become critically close to the time of the election the main opposition is assassinated. Sure some random faction of extremists are directly responsible, but it will have surely have been the government who put them upto it.

[DatonKallandor]

Dan, you are right on track with the usual "the corrupt dictator/president did it!" theory within the first 10 posts. Can we get a "the US did it" before #20?
Last I checked there isn't exactly a shortage of extremist factions that are happy to blow themselves up without prompting by anyone. They were bound to hit someone high profile enough eventually.

[BrianGeneral]

OK, the US did it.:P

Well, this event is pretty predictable in my mind. Challenging the current authority with quite a power AND opposition towards her in Pakistan is still the majority than those support her made this move dangerous, but which also show she's courageous.

My Journalism teacher talked with us about this event and stating that, since the current president (forgot his name) was supported by US due to his support of anti-terrorism, US tried to save him from falling. But the fact showed his government is too corrupt to be supported, though the politics will go into chaos if he falls from post right now, so "US did it" may be possible, if not a fact. (Because she's rallying the peasants under her banner now)

[ZellFish]

God dammit. Pakistan is going to hell, now. :\ The only sensible leader has just been killed, and it looks as if the government is going straight back into the fire. What's even worse is that while they killed the last hope for the country, he also killed 20 other people.

[LilRommel]

the middle east is like 2 3yr old kids who wont get along and everyone else has to fix their problems.

Not sure what the middle east and what age groupings they act like have to do with this topic.

I believe the short term effects of suicide bombing is great in striking fear in certain people, but ultimately its a week tool that just makes there kind look more and more Neanderthal like.

[KON Air]

I believe the short term effects of suicide bombing is great in striking fear in certain people, but ultimately its a week tool that just makes there kind look more and more Neanderthal like.

Weak? They essentially do the same thing a bazillion dollar bomber plane does. With a nickname like "LilRommel" I most certainly expected a better one liner analysis.

[Nurizeko]

Sad to hear, but hey, fundamentalist nutjobs and the Taliban are pretty much at home in Pakistan.


As for the usual "Musharraf did it" it makes no sense for him to send some lads and lasses to blow themselves up to kill someone he's allowing back into the country.

Her death only serves one purpouse and that is to make her supporters angry and wanting to punish someone, and he must have known that he would most likely get fingered if it ever happened.

So no, I doubt it was a Pakistani government job, unless the government is much more fractured then it seems.

Pakistan however does have a surplus of Muslim extremists and fundamentalists and god knows, its much more plausible for some random Muslim nut-bag to strap a bomb to himself and "martyr" himself and taking out a political figure for the greater good of Islam so on so on.

[Starfisher]

Let's not forget that she was chased out of the country on corruption charges. Even if those charges were fraudulent, they indicate powerful anti-Bhutto forces. It doesn't have to be the good General, as there are plenty of factions within the country who hated her for various reasons.

[Dess_Aramea]

How was she killed again? (haven't slept properly for the past 4 days 68% of my body hurts and my throat is still sore so I ain't reading the link sorry)

My gawd though, heard it earlier that she had been offed, its just so fucked up with politics. So many evil peeps taking out decent peeps who really want change. I just don't know man, I just wanna sleep in my bed and remain oblivious to it all but I can't now can i?

A sad day for pakistan really, if musharraf didnt do it then someone in the governemnt or one of the numerous religious NUTJOBS did it. And I bet it also had something to do with her being a woman.

[Retroboy]

Her death could also serve the purpose of punishing her, or removing her as an obstacle to someone else's agenda, depending on the emotions and thoughts of those who are ultimately responsible, and that's all that some people need as an excuse.

I don't know much about the psychology of suicide bombers, but I'd bet the sequence of events portrayed in the storyarc component of the excellent movie Syriana that show how a young man is led down the path to become one are a fairly accurate portrayal. In that case, and likely here, it's the charismatic influence of a single leader who, over time, injects a spiritual or political zealotry into his subject according to that leader's personal vision. All it takes is a nutjob in a position of some power that knows how to influence minds and does not value the lives of the young. Whether that nutjob has an accurate judgement of the eventual target of the suicide bombing, and whether that target "deserves" to die in the hearts and minds of others, is entirely irrelevant.

For all we know, that charismatic person could have been paid to create the suicide bomber, and their own emotional state about Bhutto could also have been entirely irrelevant.

-- Retro

[LilRommel]

yes weak.

Really, straping ball bearings and matcheads to your chest is pathetic and the people who encourage there kids to do it is even worse.

For instance:
http://www.heywakeupamerica.com/imag..._bomber_1_.jpg

thats sad.

Look maybe i didn't explain my thoughts enough but do i think they are a effective tool of killing civilians? absolutely.

But how is this ultimately going to help this groups image, or whatever it is they are trying to achieve, when the last attempt only netted one hundred and fifty by standers.

And really is comparing a bone head with a bomb on his chest going to achieve the same thing as a bomber plane? dont think so.

[The Collector]

This is the *second* time someone has tried to get her. And they succeeded this time.

Condolences to Bhutto, but she knew what she was getting herself into, or at least she had no illusions that she might die in the process. She's a martyr now, and perhaps Musharraf will just send the army at the militants, kill three or four, and then quietly slip them a few American night vision goggles..

[Lomax]

I searched for some good information about Bhutto, so I would not be reduced to one liners. But in a land like Pakistan, where corruption has been present in the country's highest levels for decades, it's hard to tell who's telling the truth. Anyway, here's some interesting links:

"I never asked for power" - Guardian Interview with Bhutto, 08/2002

Al Jazeera reports Bhutto's death, 12/2007

Back to Bhutto? - An interesting article about the political landscape in Pakistan from the New America foundation, 06/2007

I especially recommend the last link, yes, people who come in and write "dirty arabs, omg so stupid", I'm looking at you

[...]Pakistani society, with its thick network of clan and family allegiances, has proved incapable of generating modern political mass parties. What it has is one dynastic party, the PPP, and others which are mere congeries of local bosses and landowners. There are only two "real" Pakistani parties in the western sense -- with grassroots organisation and some sort of programme -- and both of them would tear the country apart if they ever gained supreme power. These are the MQM, an ethnic Muhajir party, and the Jamaat-Islami, a radical Islamist force.[...]

[...]Despite the protests, the president’s declining power is not the result of a new mass movement demanding radical change, but of the same factors that have brought down most previous Pakistani administrations: the inability of the government to provide enough patronage to political elites; and an alliance of those elites with the perpetually discontented, semi-employed youth of Pakistan’s cities.[...]

[...]So whatever happens, Pakistan will be stuck with a highly imperfect system in which the military continues to wield a great deal of power; and the west will be stuck with a very imperfect ally in the "war on terror," or at least the war in Afghanistan. Then again, an imperfect ally is a great deal better than the military mutiny and state collapse that could result if Washington does manage to subjugate a Pakistani government to its will.

[Dess_Aramea]

may i point out a theory.

strategically speaking if bhutto or any opposition members gained power, do you think they would maintain ties with the current Us administration?

I thought it was US foreign policy to not negotiate or deal with dictators, its funny how they made some kinda opt out with musharraf

I mean they barely talked to gaddafi or the late (General) Sani Abacha when he was alive.

I strongly believe Musharraf had connections to this killing. All dictators love power, he will fight to keep it.

I also suspect some entity that might support this motive, but hey I iz got no proof and quite frankly, its a pandora box type of thing i really dont want to open.

[The Collector]

The latter reason is why Musharraf is so...interesting. He is neither. He is the military. In many ways, the military/intelligence folks form the kingmakers; especially since Nawaz was deposed in a coup (Nawaz Sharif being the replacement for Bhutto). Pretty sure the Bhuttos are a political family too, which could imply old enemies?

[Methuselath]

Yup Bhuttos are a powerful political clan in Pakistan, I believe it's either that (old feuds) or someone getting pissed off at her. I mean, considering the issue she was involved in back then, there have to be someone that hated her enough to go kaboom on her.

Ah, politics, nothing good can come from it.

And really is comparing a bone head with a bomb on his chest going to achieve the same thing as a bomber plane? dont think so.

Collateral damage. Terror weapon. Strategic strikes. Same thing, different way of sending the package.

/me shrugs

[Belgarion]

If it was Al Qaeda or the Taliban I suspect Al-Jazeera would have a story running atm.
I just think the whole thing smells of Mushaaraf. The ISI knows when a bear craps in the woods yet they didnt know about this and somone with a handgun can walk up and shoot the woman in the neck and blow himself and a load of other people.
I also heard that the week before they stopped a 15 year old bomber.
How screwed up is that

[Methuselath]

Actually Al-Jazeera did have a story running. That's where I found out about it:

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/newsfull.php?newid=71933

[The Collector]

But in this case Al Jazeera is acting as a normal news agency without the special "leg up" as they have in Al Qaeda cases (videos, etc).

[Mirehn_Bielann]

While I'm upset by this, I am not shocked either. Bhutto was a woman of the people (in as far as a rich clanswoman can be), and so needed to show her face constantly, otherwise she would lose political clout. While it wasn't necessarily inevitable, it was made more and more likely by the day. Like many other powerful political figures, she unfortunately needed to be in the public spotlight or would lose credibility.

Also, the third article, while enlightening to someone who has no idea about Central Asian or Middle Eastern politics, is really nothing new. Afghanistan, Saudi Arabia, etc, all have very powerful family tribes that are culturally more influential than any 'political' party can be. This, of course, it born out of a culture that needed to learn to live in very hospitiable climates and therefore formed expansive and rather powerful tribal societies. These countries also never had an 'individualistic' renaissance like Europe, the United States and the Commonwealth countries have had, and, on top of that, were colonized by one or more of those said countries: so anything that comes out of them usually has to break through very powerful negative stereotypes.

Blowback, anyone?

The fact that this was a suicide bombing, and not a sniping incident, means this really could be just about anyone if no one takes credit. This could be Musharraf, or militant Islamic groups, or even the Indians if they felt Bhutto would be more of a threat a Musharraf. Considering that Bhutto, while also being corrupt but maybe not as corrupt as others, could possibly help to revitalize the Pakistani economy and present an even stronger enemy to India, it could possibly be them. It could be Militant Islamics who hate seeing a woman in power. Hell, it could be the Afghanis for all we know. Unless someone takes credit, all we have are guesses.

Hopefully, she'll be martyred. Maybe she even killed herself? She ordered her own people to hit her, in the hopes of stoking a revolution to truly change Pakistan once and for all.

If that were the case, then she is truly is a leader.

[PaxTerminatus]

To address the comparisons of suicide bombing to conventional bombing or conventional military in general.

Suicide bombing is intended to inspire capitulation by fear and inflict as much damage to innocents as possible.

A "bomber plane" is generally employed to take out a military target. Yes, there are fuck ups. Yes, there are immoral commanders. But the general rule with regards to "conventional warfare" and the use of such equipment is to destroy your enemy's ability to make war. Not blow up a market full of people who may or may not believe in the same invisible man in the sky as you. Suicide bombing and terrorism of it's ilk in general is unilaterally dispicable, war via use of conventional weapons is sometimes necessary.

That said, I am leaning away from thinking one of the usual suspects (read: islamic fundamentalist groups) are responsible for the assassination of Bhutto. With the prevalence of the suicide bombing in today's world I would not put it past purely politically motivated groups to use suicide bombers to obfuscate their true identity. Just because Religion has been the base cause of many of the world's evils doesn't mean that it is a requisite for all such carnage.

[Belgarion]

Actually to create a suicide bomber you need a religious fanatic. OR a braindead asshole although I find it hard to find the destinction between the 2.
I find it really difficult to find a religious reason in this bombing or am I missing some Bhutto fact that made her Satan or whatever devil Islam has

[PaxTerminatus]

You could:

1) Manipulate religious fanatics under false pretenses. I don't think that every crazy cell in the world ACTUALLY has leaders only interested in preserving religious tenets.

2) Actually use people who were behaviorally altered (this implies lots of money).

3) Call upon a person with loyalty to a family or clan that would allow death for that family or clan, coupled with the notions whispered while he/she was strapping on the bomb that they would live forever in the family's memory (long shot).

[Belgarion]

1 and 2 possibly but 3 I find a hilarious option

[PaxTerminatus]

Why I put in long shot. But you have to consider cultural differences and the way clans and family loyalty can be almost a religion in themselves.

[Retroboy]

Belgarion: DON'T LAUGH, OKAY?

It's an entirely different mindset. We simply can't think like them because we're not in the same surroundings, conditions, and environment.

-- Retro

[The Collector]

Three makes less sense for suicide bombing, but family motivation is used in smaller things like honor killings. But we stray.

Bear in mind many Pakistani rulers die under questionable circumstances. Zia ul-Haq's C-130 went down under mysterious circumstances, taking with it the American ambassador. Musharraf's been targeted for assassination multiple times, so it's not like anyone has a monopoly on violence here. It would seem there are as many assassins as there are ways of assassinating.

[Belgarion]

OMG Retro that last one made me cringe so hard I can barely straighten up

[Zepherian]

Sad day for pseudodemocracy.

Quote from IRC for relevance:

<Aegelward> yeah.. a woman prime minister in a muslim country.. thats like, end of the world material

Yet another possibly positive route in history is closed and we are left with the same authoritarian fuckwits going for power. I also found it disgusting that some western politicians used this sad event to continue pandering their "terrurism" agenda for continued militarism. They should just shut up with it allready and stop with the missmanagement of public money.

[Robert Frazer]

I also found it disgusting that some western politicians used this sad event to continue pandering their "terrurism" agenda for continued militarism.

Which the late Bhutto happened to be quite keen on herself. It was one of her stated policies that, had she been elected, she would allow NATO forces to pursue Taliban elements across the Pakistan-Afghanistan border - a not inconsequential pledge, given wider regional troubles. Her death and the stymying of her political platform naturally has strategic repercussions in this area and so it's entirely appropriate for Western politicians to comment on the event's effects in that sphere - and her pro-Western stance is an obvious motive for her killing. Also, what precisely is having a democracy-advocating political figure murdered by a suicide bomber but a clear example of the rampant danger presented by terrorism?

[PaxTerminatus]

The danger of terrorism isn't in dispute, but the political bullshit of all the republidumbasses capitalizing on the death of this woman in order to intimidate a few more of their constituents into voting against their interests and for the candidates that are spouting this rhetoric is what people take issue with. It's the same shit as whenever there was an election coming up the threat level would be elevated to "red".

[Zepherian]

Terrorism is just spin imo, it's a beast we create as much with our news networks as the muslims do with their mosques. The more we give it the limelight the closer we are to losing the war (which we will never win anyway as it's not even a war vrs a clearly defined enemy). Clear and present danger? Compare statistics with allmost any other cause of death and you will have mathmatical proof that terrorism is nothing but exageration. And no, 911 does not change anything.

Spin.

[Mirehn_Bielann]

Sorry, someone threatening to blow people up with dynamite strapped to their chest can only be "spun" so many ways. The ways are:

1) This person is crazy and wants to kill us all!
2) This person is really crazy and wants to kill us all!
3) Holy tolitoes Batman, this guy's really fucking nuts and wants to kill us all!

And then, when you ask them why they hate us, their usual response is: BECAUSE YOU LOVE ISRAEL and/or YOUR PEOPLE ARE DEBAUCHEROUS AND SINFUL AND WE MUST CLEANSE THE PLANET OF YOU.

And the thing is Zeph is that you're right. Statistically speaking terrorism is only a minuscule part of the deaths in the world, but you know what: We can actually stop them and it's easier too. Do you know how many people die just because people are stupid or not watching what they're doing, and not because they're stupid, brainwashed, and angry? Let's name a very few number of the ways:

1) Drunk Drivers
2) Stepping out into the street without looking
3) Tripping down a flight of stairs
4) Falling off a balcony
5) Lighting a match
6) Lighting a cigarette
7) Leaving the gas on
8) Electrical problems in the house
9) Dropping Glass
10) Dropping something electrical in the sink
11) Random falling objects
12) Choking on some random object
13) Jabbing yourself with some random object
14) Breathing in fumes you can't smell or taste
15) Poisoning yourself with food you're allergic to, or just ingest/interacting with poisonous things and no realizing it

Oh, and let's not forget diseases and body maladies:
1) Heart Attacks
2) Strokes
3) Diabetes
4) Cancer

Compared to: Religious Fanatics

Let's see, with all those things in mind, we have two options: Killing a bunch of religious fanatics OR sterilizing about 90% of the population so that the idiots in the human population don't reproduce OR put everyone in bubbles. So yeah, putting a few bullets into a bunch of religious nutjobs is a much simpler and easier process than fixing the first fifteen issues.

[Zepherian]

Then howcome it's making your country go broke?

[Belgarion]

Although I agree with most sentiments Its really too close to a rant my friend

[Mirehn_Bielann]

Because that's the cheapest thing to fix Starting from the bottom.

heh, it's kind of meant to be a pseudo-rant since it gets the point across with a lot less words then I usually type, and most people don't like reading my 2000+ word essays on this forum tbh.

[Magus Zeal]

as there are plenty of factions within the country who hated her for various reasons

Oh yeah. The Taliban, Al Quaeda, etc. all hated her. Not because of her religious or political ideals. But because she was a woman in politics. According to them (extremist groups), women should not be in that position. It's for that reason why it makes no sense for Musharraf to assassinate her.

The fact that this was a suicide bombing, and not a sniping incident

It was both, actually. A gunman walked up to the car, shot her in the neck and chest, and blew himself up. I can understand just why he did the latter -- the crowd would pull him apart at the limbs if he didn't.

As Frazer so well pointed out, she would have let NATO forces and the like go and hunt down the extremists across the borders, rather than leave it entirely to the Pakistani government (the current situation). The Pakistani military itself is divided. And with the current leadership, there's no real distinction between the two.

Consider the current state of the country: there are now wide-spread riots and panic. Musharraf remains in solid control of the country. Even if this was a family feud, why would he make it this dramatic? If she went down in an airship crash, people would not be reacting this way -- they would be mourning, and perhaps some rioting, but far, far less than the current situation. The shooting and bombing makes everyone scared and causes the entire infrastructure to degenerate into chaos. As Marvin Weinbaum and Ahmed Ackbar, commentators on BBC, pointed out, the extremists thrive in the chaos, and it allows them to move with a lot more impunity.

We do have the political ramifications, though. Bhutto had a lot of plays with the US, particularly joining Pakistan into a coalition with the US that would pretty much drive out the extremists (remember that many of the extremists in Afghanistan come/operate from Pakistan) and set them back. With her death, the power play is severed and it leaves the US a spectator. Unless Musharraf wants to try and pin the blame on someone else, it wouldn't make sense for him to do this. Again, see my second paragraph for reasons why not. It does give him an ability to enforce martial law again, but why would he need her death to do so?

Zeph: It's making our country go into depression because of the war effort in the wrong places (Iraq).

[Belgarion]

Well thought out post Magus.
My question is will Miss Bhutto being killed aid or retard the move to secular and independant Pakistan

[Magus Zeal]

I'd say that it would probably aid and retard it both. Aid in the long term, but retard it in the short. Pakistan's a lot more likely to tear itself apart than move back to a secular state at the moment. Civil war is unlikely, but who knows at this point? If Musharraf enforces civil war, the country may stabilize or it may even revolt further.

[asynd]

Discuss: the effectiveness of suicide bombing as a political force of change in Pakistan and elsewhere.

I think its actually kinda a dumb ass way to get what you want, it only shows the rest of the people there how cowardly your group/sect is when it comes to dealing with problems. But in another view, it also shows how far your willing to go, showing the person(s) that they will never be safe, regardless of security.

This has already caused riots over there from the assassination and i think her death will quite possibly benefit what she was trying to achieve over there. Fear only works to a certain degree, if you truely believe in something, you would gladly give your life for it. imo

[TheDeadlyShoe]

I'm pretty sure she died of being shot and the bombing was later. I'd have to double check.

some quotes for edification.

Pakistan is important to US security. It is a nuclear power. Its military fostered, then partially turned on the Taliban and al-Qaeda, which have bases in the lawless tribal areas of the northern part of the country. And Pakistan is key to the future of its neighbor, Afghanistan. Pakistan is also a key transit route for any energy pipelines built between Iran or Central Asia and India, and so central to the energy security of the United States.

The military government of Pervez Musharraf was shaken by two big crises in 2007, one urban and one rural. The urban crisis was his interference in the rule of law and his dismissal of the supreme court chief justice.

....

The rural crisis was the attempt of a Neo-Deobandi cult made up of Pushtuns and Baluch from the north to establish themselves in the heart of the capital, Islamabad, at the Red Mosque seminary. They then attempted to impose rural, puritan values on the cosmopolitan city dwellers. When they kidnapped Chinese acupuncturists, accusing them of prostitution, they went too far.

...

Most Pakistanis did not rally in favor of the Neo-Deobandi cultists, but to see a military invasion of a mosque was not pleasant (the militants inside turned out to be heavily armed and quite sinister).

...

The NYT reported that US Secretary of State Condi Rice tried to fix Musharraf's subsequent dwindling legitimacy by arranging for Benazir to return to Pakistan to run for prime minister, with Musharraf agreeing to resign from the military and become a civilian president. When the supreme court seemed likely to interfere with his remaining president, he arrested the justices, dismissed them, and replaced them with more pliant jurists. This move threatened to scuttle the Rice Plan, since Benazir now faced the prospect of serving a dictator as his grand vizier, rather than being a proper prime minister.

With Benazir's assassination, the Rice Plan is in tatters and Bush administration policy toward Pakistan and Afghanistan is tottering.

[Rampaged]

Yes I believe she was shot first and that the suicide bomb was the assassins only way out. Think about what happened for a minute. If a shooter is trying to get close to a high profile target in a densely supportive crowd, there is no way that person is going to get out of that crowd alive. My guess is he or she planned on shooting Bhutto and using the bomb as a way to avoid his or her own slow torturous death at the hands of Bhutto's supporters.

I just don't understand this world sometimes.

[Mac_Bug]

what if the assassin was a guy forced into doing it because otherwise his family would be killed and he himself has bombs strapped on by his captors and threatened with death?

[BigTexTruckin]

what if the assassin was a guy forced into doing it because otherwise his family would be killed and he himself has bombs strapped on by his captors and threatened with death?

Actually, that is a common MO in Iraq. During my time there I encountered it several times. The "real" terrorists would threaten kids and young adults with retribution towards their families if they cooperated with us, or if they refused to help plant IEDs: digging holes, smuggling components, and actually planting the explosives.

With that TTP, it comes down to the fact that some people are easily intimidated by violence, and some aren't.

[Magus Zeal]

Yes I believe she was shot first and that the suicide bomb was the assassins only way out.

That's right. Like I said, if the attacker didn't blow himself up, the crowd would have grabbed his limbs and pulled him apart with sheer human strength alone.

As TheDeadlyShoe pointed out, a lot of what Bhutto had done was in connection with the US. There's the border patrols by NATO, energy pipelines, and to a MUCH lesser extent the nuclear weapons. Really, the nuclear weapons are such a minor issue that bringing them up is so inconsequential. But the border patrols and energy is a big thing. She was also very heavily pro-Western, something that the extremists hate.

Before her death, relations with Pakistan was a nice medium-rare fillet mignon.
Now it's a shit sandwich -- and we're alllll going to have to take a bite.